India is trying hard not to take sides in what seems to be heading towards an intra-Islam cold war in West Asia.

As Manmohan Singh heads to Iran later this month to participate in the NAM summit he is likely to be pressed to take the Tehran line on Syria, certainly in his meetings with both Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmedinejad and the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. The NAM summit too will probably devote a lot of time to the crisis in West Asia.

Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, where India has high stakes; have been trying to get New Delhi to see the evolving crisis from their point of view. For some time, GCC countries have been telling India to try to influence Iran’s behaviour, which they see as destabilizing. From Saudi Arabia’s Shia unrest in its eastern city of Qatif, to the continuing agitations in Bahrain, the Sunni Arabs blame Iran for stoking the flames of sectarian conflict.
The strong sectarian overtones to the conflict are too obvious to be ignored. Saudi Arabia supports the Syrian rebels, as does Turkey and Qatar. Iran is the regime’s greatest backer. The US is pushing for Bashar-al Assad to be removed because that would be a huge blow to Iran, which is now the sole object of US ire for its nuclear ambitions. India believes there is a lot of external involvement in Syria, and this, coupled with extremist groups like al Qaeda, add that extra lethality in the violence. The Assad regime is weakened but not weak enough to fall soon, the rebels are lethal but not organized enough to be a credible alternative. And, the stalemate could continue, giving ample opportunity for outside powers to influence the crisis, which they are.

Vali Nasr, Middle East expert with Johns Hopkins University, told TOI, “Syria has already descended into a civil war that reflects the broader sectarian division in the region. The longer the conflict in Syria festers the more it will feed on growing Shia-Sunni tensions in the region, and the more likely it will be that Syria will in turn inflame those tensions.”

India’s interests — energy and diaspora — lie in the Sunni Arab world. Saudi Arabia is India’s biggest oil supplier, and Qatar is the largest supplier of gas. India’s six million expatriates in the Gulf are mainly in the Arab countries. Riyadh and New Delhi are working on a bilateral relationship that could be crucial going forward. Qatar, Kuwait, Oman and UAE are all ramping up ties with India in various ways — investment, energy, infrastructure, technology etc. Besides, the overwhelming majority of Indian Muslims are Sunni. There are connections between radical extremists that target India and countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
India is working to develop a strong relationship with Saudi Arabia separately, the two countries cooperating quietly on areas that matter to both — like defence and counter-terrorism. Saudi Arabia, in an unprecedented move; deported a Lashkar terrorist, Zabiuddin Ansari alias Abu Jundal to India, in the teeth of opposition from its ally, Pakistan. India is developing defence ties with Saudi Arabia, another first.

India has equally strong interests in Iran. As the best route to Afghanistan and central Asia, Iran is invaluable, quite apart from its unique position as a neighbour’s neighbour. India also believes that after the Iraq war, the ascendance of the Shias makes Iran powerful in the Islamic world. On Syria, India doesn’t have much of a relationship with Assad, but there is a deep distaste back home to allow external intervention leading to regime change. That remains a key feature in India’s approach to the unrest.

After the second Gulf war, the power balance in West Asia shifted decisively towards Shia Iran. Hezbollah was Iran’s proxy warriors, and in the 2006 conflict with Israel, many felt Hezbollah was bloodied but unbeaten. Hamas, Israel’s primary bugbear, may be Sunni, but threw in its lot with Iran as well. Iran’s nuclear ambitions seemed like a natural progression to Iran’s march to regional power status.

All this has changed with the Arab Spring and the ensuing unrest of the past year. The Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt has triumphed after all. With Assad under fire in Syria, Iran will lose its biggest ally, putting even Lebanon out of reach. Iraq is stuck in its own sectarian quagmire. Saudi Arabia has re-established control over the Sunni Arab world, trying to quiet both Yemen and Bahrain.

Saudi Arabia and Iran are now two polar points for the sectarian conflict. Ed Husain, West Asia expert in Council for Foreign Relations, Washington, said in a recent interview to CFR: “[T]here’s been a regional cold war that’s been playing out in terms of who leads the Muslim streets, hearts, and minds; and Iran’s claim is being challenged,” he says. “Saudi Arabia is saying, ‘Look, we still lead the vast majority of the world’s Sunni nations.”

SOURCE: THE TIME OF INDIA

MECCA: The Organization of Islamic Cooperation suspended Syria on Thursday, citing President Bashar al-Assad’s suppression of the Syrian revolt, but there was little support for direct military involvement in Syria at a summit of Muslim leaders in Mecca.

Summit host Saudi Arabia has led Arab efforts to isolate Syria diplomatically and has also backed calls for the Syrian rebel opposition to be armed, which foreign minister Saud al-Fasial described in February as “an excellent idea”.

But speaking to reporters after the summit, OIC secretary general Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu said he “did not see much support for external military intervention” in Syria during the summit.

He described the decision to suspend Syrian membership as “a message to the international community … that the Islamic community stands with a politically peaceful solution and does not want any more bloodshed”.

The 57-member body’s rebuke is mostly symbolic, but it shows Syria’s isolation – as well as that of its ally Iran – across much of the Sunni-majority Islamic world.

The summit, which has taken place late on consecutive nights because of the Ramadan fast, had been billed as a diplomatic showdown between Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shi’ite Iran, which have backed different sides in sectarian conflicts in the region.

Iranian foreign minister Ali Akbar Salehi criticised Syria’s suspension as he left Mecca early on Thursday, saying it was contrary to the organisation’s charter.

“Before taking this decision it is necessary to invite the Syrian government to the meeting so that it can defend itself and so that participants can listen to its official views,” the official news agency, IRNA, reported him as saying.

Saudi King Abdullah tried to conciliate Iran at the summit opening by placing President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad at his side to welcome Muslim leaders in a gesture Saudi political analysts said was aimed at putting old grievances aside in the quest for a resolution to the Syrian crisis.

He also suggested founding a centre for dialogue between Islam’s sects, another move aimed at trying to defuse some of the region’s sectarian tensions. That proposal was adopted by the summit.

SOURCE: THE TIMES OF INDIA

Egypt’s president has retired two top generals and and scrapped a constitutional document which gave sweeping powers to the military.

Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, who ruled Egypt for more than a year after the revolution that toppled former president Hosni Mubarak and was defence minister for two decades, has been replaced by Abdel Fattah al-Sissi.

The man considered as the military council’s number two, chief of staff Sami Annan, has also been ordered to retire.

Both were awarded the Greatest Nile Collar, Egypt’s most prestigious award, and retained as presidential advisors.

Mr Morsi, an Islamist who rose through the ranks of the Muslim Brotherhood before his election triumph, has also decided to appoint a deputy.

Judge Mahmud Mekki will now become only Egypt’s second vice-president in 30 years.

The president has also cancelled a constitutional declaration that limits presidential powers, which the ruling military council issued in June.

The shake-up is the latest in a series of major decisions taken by Mr Morsi since a deadly attack on troops in the Sinai peninsula on August 5.

Last week, the president ordered spy chief Muraf Muwafi to retire in a reshuffle of military and intelligence ranks after the attack which killed 16 soldiers near Egypt’s borders with Israel and the Gaza Strip.

He also sacked the governor of North Sinai, Abdel Wahab Mabruk.

The head of military police, Hamdi Badeen, was replaced because he was deemed to have failed to secure the funeral for the slain soldiers, during which some protesters tried to assault prime minister Hisham Qandil.

SOURCE: ABC Radio Australia